2020 ExistentialRiskandGrowth

From GM-RKB
(Redirected from Aschenbrenner, 2020)
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Subject Headings: Existential Risk Model, Economic Growth Model, Economic Stagnation Model, Endogenous Growth Model, Directed Technical Change, Long-Term Outcome, Technology-Induced Catastrophic Risk.

Notes

Cited By

Quotes

Abstract

Human activity can create or mitigate risks of catastrophes, such as nuclear war, climate change, pandemics, or artificial intelligence run amok. These could even imperil the survival of human civilization. What is the relationship between economic growth and such existen - tial risks? In a model of directed technical change, with moderate parameters, existential risk follows a Kuznets-style inverted U-shape. This suggests we could be living in a unique “time of perils, ” having developed technologies advanced enough to threaten our permanent destruction, but not having grown wealthy enough yet to be willing to spend sufficiently on safety. Accelerating growth during this “time of perils” initially increases risk, but improves the chances of humanity’s survival in the long run. Conversely, even short-term stagnation could substantially curtail the future of humanity.

References

;

 AuthorvolumeDate ValuetitletypejournaltitleUrldoinoteyear
2020 ExistentialRiskandGrowthLeopold AschenbrennerExistential Risk and Growth2020