2020 ExistentialRiskandGrowth

• (Aschenbrenner, 2020) ⇒ Leopold Aschenbrenner. (2020). “Existential Risk and Growth.” In: Global Priorities Institute Working Paper.

Subject Headings: Existential Risk Model, Economic Growth Model, Economic Stagnation Model, Endogenous Growth Model, Directed Technical Change, Long-Term Outcome, Technology-Induced Catastrophic Risk.

Notes

• The paper develops an endogenous growth model to analyze the relationship between economic growth and existential risk, featuring a consumption sector that increases risk and a safety sector that mitigates risk.
• The paper highlights the crucial role of the scale effect of risk (whether risk increases or decreases with the scale of the economy) in determining long-run dynamics and the survival of humanity.
• The paper suggests that under an optimal allocation with moderate parameter values, existential risk follows an inverted U-shape over time, implying humanity may be in a unique "time of perils" where technology is advanced enough to pose existential risk but the economy is not yet rich enough to prioritize safety.
• The paper argues that during the "time of perils", faster growth initially increases risk but improves humanity's survival chances in the long run by making people richer sooner and increasing safety spending, while stagnation reduces long-run survival chances.
• The paper notes that if the scale effect of risk is very large relative to the productivity of research, existential catastrophe is inevitable in the long run regardless of the allocation, potentially leading to an "end of growth" scenario.
• The paper compares the relative effectiveness of increasing consumption versus reducing pure time preference in increasing the value of life and demand for safety, finding that with moderate diminishing returns to consumption, increases in consumption can be very effective.
• The paper provides an economic framework for analyzing the complex interaction between growth, consumption, research productivity, and existential risk over time, with policy implications depending on the scale effect of risk and society's preferences.

Cited By

• http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%222020%22+Existential+Risk+and+Growth

Quotes

Abstract

Human activity can create or mitigate risks of catastrophes, such as nuclear war, climate change, pandemics, or artificial intelligence run amok. These could even imperil the survival of human civilization. What is the relationship between economic growth and such existen - tial risks? In a model of directed technical change, with moderate parameters, existential risk follows a Kuznets-style inverted U-shape. This suggests we could be living in a unique “time of perils, ” having developed technologies advanced enough to threaten our permanent destruction, but not having grown wealthy enough yet to be willing to spend sufficiently on safety. Accelerating growth during this “time of perils” initially increases risk, but improves the chances of humanity’s survival in the long run. Conversely, even short-term stagnation could substantially curtail the future of humanity.

References

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	Author	volume	Date Value	title	type	journal	titleUrl	doi	note	year
2020 ExistentialRiskandGrowth	Leopold Aschenbrenner			Existential Risk and Growth						2020