2014 StateoftheFuture

• (Glenn et al., 2014) ⇒ Jerome C Glenn, Theodore J Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu. (2014). “State of the Future.” In: The Millennium Project,.

Subject Headings: State of the Future Index, The Millenium Project, Utopian.

Notes

• http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/201314SOF.html

Cited By

• http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%222007%22+State+of+the+Future

Quotes

Abstract

The global situation for humanity continues to improve in general, but at the expense of the environment. People around the world are becoming healthier, wealthier, better educated, more peaceful, and increasingly connected, and they are living longer. The child mortality rate has dropped 47% since 1990, extreme poverty in the developing world fell from 50% in 1981 to 21% in 2010, primary school completion rates grew from 81% in 1990 to 91% in 2011, only one transborder war occurred in 2013, nearly 40% of humanity is connected via the Internet, and life expectancy has increased ten years over the past twenty years to reach 70.5 years today. However, water tables are falling on all continents, intrastate conflicts and refugee numbers are increasing, glaciers are melting, income gaps are increasingly obscene, coral reefs are dying, ocean acidity is increasing, ocean dead zones have doubled every decade since the 1960s, half the world's topsoil has been destroyed, youth unemployment has reached dangerous proportions, traffic jams and air pollution are strangling cities, $11.6 trillion is paid in bribes, organized crime takes in twice the money per year as all military budgets combined, civil liberties are increasingly threatened, and half of the world is potentially unstable.

Massive transitions from isolated subsistence agriculture and industrial economies to an emerging global Internet - connected pluralistic civilization are occurring at unprecedented speed and uncertainties. Monitoring major indicators of progress from health and education to water and energy shows we are winning more than we are losing - but where we are losing is very serious. After seventeen years of continuous monitoring of global change as documented in the annual State of the Future reports, it is clear that humanity has the ideas and resources to address its global challenges, but it has not yet shown the leadership, policies, and management on the scale necessary to guarantee a better future. It is also clear from The Millennium Project's global futures research over all these years that there is greater agreement about how to build a better future than is evident in the one-way media that holds audiences by the drama of disagreement, which is reinforcing polarization. When you consider the many wrong decisions and good decisions not taken - day after day and year after year around the world = it is amazing that we are still making as much progress as we are.

The IMF expects the global economy to grow from 3% in 2013 to 3.7% during 2014 and possibly 3.9% in 2015. With world population of 7.2 billion growing at 1.1% in 2013, the global per capita income is increasing at 2.6% per year. The world is reducing poverty faster than many thought was possible, but the divide between the rich and poor is growing faster than many want to admit. According to Oxfam, the total wealth of the richest 85 people equals that of 3.6 billion people in the bottom half of the world's economy, and half of the world's wealth is owned by just 1% of the population. We need to continue the successful efforts that are reducing poverty, but we also need to focus far more seriously on reducing income inequality if long-term instability is to be avoided.

…

The World Report Card

Each of the 30 variables can be examined to show where we are winning, where we are losing, and where there is unclear or little progress, producing a report card for the world. Figures 2, 3, and 4 show the indicators with their historical data and projections grouped by progress criterion. Box 1. Variables used in the 2013–14 State of the Future Index

1. . GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $)
2. . Economic income inequality (share of top 10%)
3. . Unemployment, total (% of world labor force)
4. . Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)
5. . Levels of corruption (0=highly corrupt; 6=very clean)
6. . Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current $, billions)
7. . R&D Expenditures (% of GDP)
8. . Population growth (annual %)
9. . Life expectancy at birth (years)
10. . Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
11. . Prevalence of undernourishment
12. . Health expenditure per capita (current $)
13. . Physicians (per 1,000 people)
14. . Improved water source (% of population with access)
15. . Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (thousand cubic meters)
16. . Ecological Footprint / Biocapacity ratio
17. . Forest area (% of land area)
18. . CO2emissions from fossil fuel and cement production (billion tones (GtCO2))
19. . Energy efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2005 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent))
20. . Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding hydroelectric (% of total)
21. . Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)
22. . School enrollment, secondary (% gross)
23. . Number of wars (conflicts with more than 1,000 fatalities)
24. . Terrorism incidents
25. . Number of countries and groups that had or still have intentions to build nuclear weapons
26. . Freedom rights (number of countries rated free)
27. . Voter turnout (% voting population)
28. . Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (% of members)
29. . Internet users (per 100 people)
30. . Prevalence of HIV (% of population age 15 and 49)

References

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	Author	volume	Date Value	title	type	journal	titleUrl	doi	note	year
2014 StateoftheFuture	Jerome C Glenn Theodore J Gordon Elizabeth Florescu			State of the Future