2009 SpatialTemporalCausalModelingfo

• (Lozano et al., 2009) ⇒ Aurelie C. Lozano, Hongfei Li, Alexandru Niculescu-Mizil, Yan Liu, Claudia Perlich, Jonathan Hosking, and Naoki Abe. (2009). “Spatial-temporal Causal Modeling for Climate Change Attribution.” In: Proceedings of the 15th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD-2009). doi:10.1145/1557019.1557086

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Cited By

• http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%22Spatial-temporal+causal+modeling+for+climate+change+attribution%22+2009
• http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?doid=1557019.1557086&preflayout=flat#citedby

Quotes

Abstract

Attribution of climate change to causal factors has been based predominantly on simulations using physical climate models, which have inherent limitations in describing such a complex and chaotic system. We propose an alternative, data centric, approach that relies on actual measurements of climate observations and human and natural forcing factors. Specifically, we develop a novel method to infer causality from spatial-temporal data, as well as an procedure to incorporate extreme value modeling into our method in order to address the attribution of extreme climate events, such as heatwaves. Our experimental results on a real world dataset indicate that changes in temperature are not solely accounted for by solar radiance, but attributed more significantly to CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Combined with extreme value modeling, we also show that there has been a significant increase in the intensity of extreme temperatures, and that such changes in extreme temperature are also attributable to greenhouse gases. These preliminary results suggest that our approach can offer a useful alternative to the simulation-based approach to climate modeling and attribution, and provide valuable insights from a fresh perspective.

References

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	Author	volume	Date Value	title	type	journal	titleUrl	doi	note	year
2009 SpatialTemporalCausalModelingfo	Naoki Abe Yan Liu Hongfei Li Claudia Perlich Alexandru Niculescu-Mizil Aurelie C. Lozano Jonathan Hosking			Spatial-temporal Causal Modeling for Climate Change Attribution		KDD-2009 Proceedings		10.1145/1557019.1557086		2009