Technology Forecasting Task
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A Technology Forecasting Task is a forecasting task that focuses on predicting the future characteristics, developments, and impacts of technologies.
- Context:
- output: a Technology Forecast.
- It can be used by organizations to guide decisions regarding Technology Adoption and Technology Development.
- It can involve analyzing past Technological Advancements and Technological Trends.
- It can require the synthesis of expert opinions, quantitative models, and historical data.
- ...
- Example(s):
- Counter-Example(s):
- A Job Market Forecasting Task (for a job market).
- A Weather Forecasting Task.
- See: Forecasting, Superintelligence Explosion Period, Technological Development, Innovation Forecasting.
References
2023
- (Wikipedia, 2023) ⇒ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_forecasting Retrieved:2023-7-31.
- Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits. Today, most countries are experiencing huge social and economic changes, which heavily rely on technology development. By analyzing these changes, government and economic institutions could make plans for future developments. However, not all of historical data can be used for technology forecasting, forecasters also need to adopt advanced technology and quantitative modeling from experts’ researches and conclusions.
2013
- (Cho & Daim, 2013) ⇒ Y. Cho, T. Daim. (2013). “Technology Forecasting Methods." In: Research and Technology Management in the … - Springer.
- NOTE: It reviews approaches in Technology Forecasting and their evolution.
2013
- (Candelise et al., 2013) ⇒ C. Candelise, M. Winskel, R.J.K. Gross. (2013). “The Dynamics of Solar PV Costs and Prices as a Challenge for Technology Forecasting." In: Renewable and Sustainable Energy … - Elsevier.
- NOTE: It highlights the complexities of forecasting in the realm of [psolar PV technologi]]es and the importance of Technology Forecasting.
2008
- (Anderson et al., 2008) ⇒ T.R. Anderson, T.U. Daim, J. Kim. (2008). “Technology Forecasting for Wireless Communication." In: Technovation - Elsevier.
- NOTE: It delves into the specifics of forecasting wireless communication technologies with relevance to Technology Forecasting.
1982
- (Wissema, 1982) ⇒ J.G. Wissema. (1982). “Trends in Technology Forecasting." In: R&D Management - Wiley Online Library.
- NOTE: It provides insight into the methodologies and trends of Technology Forecasting in the 1980s.