Superintelligence Explosion Period Forecasting Task

A Superintelligence Explosion Period Forecasting Task is a technology forecasting task for a superintelligence explosion period.

• Context:
  • It can predict when the Superintelligence Explosion Period will occur.
  • It can predict the precursors.
  • It can involve studying the current trajectory of AI Development and advancements in Computational Power.
  • It can be associated to Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting (of AGI).
  • ...
• Example(s):
  • Ray Kurzweil's prediction that the Technological Singularity will occur around 2045.
  • Futurists estimating the timeframe based on Recursive Self-Improvement theories.
  • ...
• Counter-Example(s):
  • Chatbot User Forecasting.
  • LLM Capability Forecasting.
• See: AI Safety, Extraterrestrial Superintelligence Explosion Period, Recursive Self-Improvement.

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References

2005

• (Kurzweil, 2005) ⇒ Ray Kurzweil. (2005). “The Singularity Is Near." Penguin Books.

1993

• (Vinge, 1993) ⇒ Vernor Vinge. (1993). “The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era", in Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace, G. A. Landis, ed., NASA Publication CP-10129.

1965

• (Good, 1965b) ⇒ Irving John Good. (1965). “Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine.” In: Advances in computers Journal, 6(31).

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