Moore's Law Trend
A Moore's Law Trend is a technological observation that predicts the doubling pattern in transistor counts per integrated circuit approximately every two years.
- Context:
- It can (typically) serve as a Prediction Model for semiconductor advancement.
- It can (often) guide Technology Roadmaps in the semiconductor industry.
- It can (often) influence Research Directions and development strategy.
- ...
- It can range from being a Simple Component Count to being a Complex Performance Metric, based on its measurement scope.
- It can range from being a Short-Term Forecast to being a Long-Term Trend, depending on its time horizon.
- ...
- It can drive Technology Node advancement.
- It can enable Circuit Density improvements.
- It can shape Industry Investment patterns.
- It can face Physical Limits at nanoscale.
- It can influence Economic Models of chip production.
- It can adapt through Design Innovations.
- ...
- Examples:
- Historical Observations, such as:
- Original Moore Paper (1965) predicting annual doubling.
- Revised Prediction (1975) adjusting to biennial doubling.
- Application Domains, such as:
- ...
- Historical Observations, such as:
- Counter-Examples:
- Wright's Law, which describes cost reductions with cumulative production, not technological performance growth.
- Huang's Law, which focuses on advancements in GPU performance rather than general production trends or costs.
- Swanson's Law, which specifically addresses the price decline of solar photovoltaic modules, not broader technology scaling laws.
- Kryder's Law, which pertains to the exponential growth in hard drive storage density, rather than general production or cost trends.
- Butter's Law of Photonics, which focuses on the rapid increase in optical data transmission rates, distinct from trends in production or cost efficiency.
- See: Technology Adoption Pattern, Technological Evolution, Semiconductor Industry, Process Node, Circuit Integration, Transistor Scaling.
References
2024
- LLM
- Q: Create a table summarizing Moore's Law doubling rates at five-year intervals from 1965 to 2020, including columns for Year, Approximate Doubling Rate (e.g., 12 months, 24 months), and Context or Observation explaining technological trends or changes.
| Year | Approximate Doubling Rate | Context/Observation |
|---|---|---|
| 1965 | ~12 months | Original prediction in Moore's paper: components doubled annually. |
| 1970 | ~12 months | Consistent with the initial trend observed in the early days of integrated circuits. |
| 1975 | ~24 months | Revised by Moore to biennial doubling due to slower advances in semiconductor density. |
| 1980 | ~24 months | Steady progression of technology following the revised prediction. |
| 1985 | ~24 months | Improvements driven by innovations in chip design and manufacturing. |
| 1990 | ~18–24 months | Introduction of advanced lithography, improving doubling times closer to 18 months. |
| 1995 | ~18 months | Transistor counts surged with innovations like multi-layer chips. |
| 2000 | ~18 months | Faster transistor performance combined with design optimizations. |
| 2005 | ~24 months | Heat dissipation and scaling challenges began affecting progress. |
| 2010 | ~24 months | Multi-core architectures offset slower physical scaling improvements. |
| 2015 | ~30–36 months | Industry began to approach physical and economic limits of traditional scaling. |
| 2020 | ~36 months (or slower) | Progress continued but slowed significantly; focus shifted to design innovation. |
2023
- (Roser et al., 2023) => Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Edouard Mathieu. (2023). “What is Moore’s Law?" March 28, 2023
- Exponential growth is at the heart of the rapid increase of computing capabilities.
2016
- (Denning & Lewis, 2016) ⇒ Peter J. Denning, and Ted G. Lewis. (2016). “Exponential Laws of Computing Growth.” In: Communications of the ACM Journal, 60(1). doi:10.1145/2976758
- QUOTE: In a forecasting exercise, Gordon Earle Moore, co-founder of Intel, plotted data on the number of components — transistors, resistors, and capacitors — in chips made from 1959 to 1965. He saw an approximate straight line on log paper (see Figure 1). Extrapolating the line, he speculated that the number of components would grow from 26 in 1965 to 216 in 1975, doubling every year. His 1965–1975 forecast came true. In 1975, with more data, he revised the estimate of the doubling period to two years. In those days, doubling components also doubled chip speed because the greater number of components could perform more powerful operations and smaller circuits allowed faster clock speeds. Later, Moore's Intel colleague David House claimed the doubling time for speed should be taken as 18 months because of increasing clock speed, whereas Moore maintained that the doubling time for components was 24 months. But clock speed stabilized around 2000 because faster speeds caused more heat dissipation than chips could withstand. Since then, the faster speeds are achieved with multi-core chips at the same clock frequency. …
… These analyses show that the conditions exist at all three levels of the computing ecosystem to sustain exponential growth. They support the optimism of many engineers that many additional years of exponential growth are likely. Moore's Law was sustained for five decades. Exponential growth is likely to be sustained for many more.
- QUOTE: In a forecasting exercise, Gordon Earle Moore, co-founder of Intel, plotted data on the number of components — transistors, resistors, and capacitors — in chips made from 1959 to 1965. He saw an approximate straight line on log paper (see Figure 1). Extrapolating the line, he speculated that the number of components would grow from 26 in 1965 to 216 in 1975, doubling every year. His 1965–1975 forecast came true. In 1975, with more data, he revised the estimate of the doubling period to two years. In those days, doubling components also doubled chip speed because the greater number of components could perform more powerful operations and smaller circuits allowed faster clock speeds. Later, Moore's Intel colleague David House claimed the doubling time for speed should be taken as 18 months because of increasing clock speed, whereas Moore maintained that the doubling time for components was 24 months. But clock speed stabilized around 2000 because faster speeds caused more heat dissipation than chips could withstand. Since then, the faster speeds are achieved with multi-core chips at the same clock frequency. …
2013
- (Wkipedia, 2016) &rArr ;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law
- Moore's law is the observation that over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. The period often quoted as "18 months" is due to Intel executive David House, who predicted that period for a doubling in chip performance (being a combination of the effect of more transistors and their being faster).[1]
The law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who described the trend in his 1965 paper.[2][3][4]
The paper noted that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 until 1965 and predicted that the trend would continue "for at least ten years".Template:Sfn His prediction has proven to be uncannily accurate, in part because the law is now used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development.[5]
The capabilities of many digital electronic devices are strongly linked to Moore's law: processing speed, memory capacity, sensors and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras.[6]
All of these are improving at (roughly) exponential rates as well (see Other formulations and similar laws). This exponential improvement has dramatically enhanced the impact of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the world economy.[7]
Moore's law describes a driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.[8][9] This trend has continued for more than half a century. Sources in 2005 expected it to continue until at least 2015 or 2020.{{#tag:ref|The trend begins with the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958. See the graph on the bottom of page 3 of Moore's original presentation of the idea. [10] However, the 2010 update to the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors has growth slowing at the end of 2013,[11] after which time transistor counts and densities are to double only every three years.
- Moore's law is the observation that over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. The period often quoted as "18 months" is due to Intel executive David House, who predicted that period for a doubling in chip performance (being a combination of the effect of more transistors and their being faster).[1]
- ↑ "Moore's Law to roll on for another decade". http://news.cnet.com/2100-1001-984051.html. Retrieved 2011-11-27. "Moore also affirmed he never said transistor count would double every 18 months, as is commonly said. Initially, he said transistors on a chip would double every year. He then recalibrated it to every two years in 1975. David House, an Intel executive at the time, noted that the changes would cause computer performance to double every 18 months."
- ↑ Moore, Gordon E. (1965). "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits" (PDF). Electronics Magazine. p. 4. http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf. Retrieved 2006-11-11.
- ↑ "Excerpts from A Conversation with Gordon Moore: Moore’s Law" (PDF). Intel Corporation. 2005. p. 1. ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Video-Transcripts/Excepts_A_Conversation_with_Gordon_Moore.pdf. Retrieved 2006-05-02.
- ↑ "1965 – "Moore's Law" Predicts the Future of Integrated Circuits". Computer History Museum. 2007. http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html. Retrieved 2009-03-19.
- ↑ Disco, Cornelius; van der Meulen, Barend (1998). Getting new technologies together. New York: Walter de Gruyter. pp. 206–207. ISBN 3-11-015630-X. OCLC 39391108. http://books.google.com/books?id=1khslZ-jbgEC&pg=PA206&lpg=PA206&ots=D38v82mSkm&output=html&sig=ACfU3U2jPixZgKq-PYwVPHDpwO2Zt31puQ. Retrieved 23 August 2008.
- ↑ Template:Cite news
- ↑ Template:Cite news
- ↑ Template:Cite news
- ↑ Liddle, David E. (September 2006). "The Wider Impact of Moore's Law". Solid State Circuits Newsletter. http://www.ieee.org/portal/site/sscs/menuitem.f07ee9e3b2a01d06bb9305765bac26c8/index.jsp?&pName=sscs_level1_article&TheCat=2165&path=sscs/06Sept&file=Liddle.xml. Retrieved 28 November 2008.
- ↑ Kanellos, Michael (19 April 2005). "New Life for Moore's Law". cnet. http://news.cnet.com/New-life-for-Moores-Law/2009-1006_3-5672485.html. Retrieved 2009-03-19.
- ↑ http://www.itrs.net/Links/2010ITRS/2010Update/ToPost/2010Tables_ORTC_ITRS.xls
2010
- (Nambiar & Poess, 2010) ⇒ Raghunath Nambiar, and Meikel Poess. (2010). “Transaction Performance Vs. Moore's Law: A Trend Analysis.” In: Proceedings of the Second TPC technology conference on Performance evaluation, measurement and characterization of complex systems. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-18206-8_9
- QUOTE: Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore postulated in his famous 1965 paper that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from their invention in 1958 until 1965, and then predicted that the trend would continue for at least ten years. Later, David House, an Intel colleague, after factoring in the increase in performance of transistors, concluded that integrated circuits would double in performance every 18 months. Despite this trend in microprocessor improvements, your favored text editor continues to take the same time to start and your PC takes pretty much the same time to reboot as it took 10 years ago.
1965
- (Moore, 1965) ⇒ Gordon E. Moore. (1965). “Cramming More Components Onto Integrated Circuits." Electronic, 38(8).
- QUOTE: With unit cost falling as the number of components per circuit rises, by 1975 economics may dictate squeezing as many as 65,000 components on a single silicon chip.