Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Emergence Period

An Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Emergence Period is an system emergence period for AGIs (when many AI capabilities supersede many human cognitive capabilities).

• Context:
  • It can (typically) include highly capable AGI systems, such as: Super Lawyers, Super Medical Doctors, Super Software Engineers, Super Intellectuals, ...
  • It can (typically) be preceded by a Narrow AI Explosion Period (that we are currently living in).
  • It can be followed by a AGI Expansion Period and a Superintelligence Emergence Period.
  • It can be accelerated by an International AI Race (with competing AI-focused organizations).
  • It can require the existence of many ExaFLOP Systems (between 2023 and 2030, TOP500-based projection chart).
  • It can result in large Labor Productivity gains and Mass Underemployment (through technological unemployment).
  • It can range from being a Real AGI Emergence Period to being a Hypothetical AGI Emergence Period.
  • …
• Example(s):
  • It may have already occurred elsewhere in the universe (in an extraterrestial AGI emergence period).
  • They one discussed on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nlkk3glap_U
  • …
• Counter-Example(s):
  • a Human Emergence Period.
  • a Plant Emergence Period (followed by the great oxygenation extinction).
  • an Organic Life Emergence Period.
• See: Pre-Cambrian Period, TOP-500 Projections.

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References

2024

• GPT-4
  • Narrow AI Explosion Period (2010s - Future):
    • It represents a phase where Narrow AI applications rapidly diversify and improve in performance.
    • It could lead to the emergence of more sophisticated Narrow AI systems capable of handling complex, multi-step tasks within their defined scope.
    • It is characterized by a significant increase in the adoption and reliance on Narrow AI technologies across all sectors.
    • It poses ethical and regulatory challenges as Narrow AI becomes more deeply embedded in critical systems and processes.
  • AGI Emergence Period (Hypothetical: 2030s - 2050s):
    • It signifies the initial development of AGI technology, potentially occurring in the mid-21st century.
    • It involves AGI systems gaining the capability to perform intellectual tasks like humans.
    • It is marked by breakthroughs in machine learning and cognitive computing.
    • It represents the transition from theoretical to practical applications of AGI.
  • AGI Expansion Period (Hypothetical: 2050s - 2070s):
    • It sees AGI becoming integrated into various aspects of society.
    • It involves AGI managing complex systems and assisting in decision-making across multiple sectors.
    • It marks the point where AGI becomes a ubiquitous part of human life.
    • It raises new societal, ethical, and economic challenges as AGI becomes more prevalent.
  • AGI Explosion Period (Hypothetical: Late 21st Century):
    • It is a phase of rapid and transformative change in AGI capabilities.
    • It could lead to AGIs improving themselves or creating more advanced AGIs.
    • It is characterized by exponential growth in intelligence and capability.
    • It has profound implications, including shifts in power dynamics, economic structures, and human identity.

2023

• GBard
  • QUOTE: An Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Emergence Period is a period of time in which artificial general intelligence (AGI) systems become capable of surpassing human cognitive capabilities in many areas. This can be preceded by a period of rapid development in Narrow AI, and can be accelerated by international competition between AI-focused organizations. The impact of AGI Emergence Periods on society could be significant, potentially leading to large gains in Labor Productivity and causing Mass Underemployment due to Technological Unemployment.
    • Detailed Description:
      • Early AGI Signs: The initial indicators may include AGI systems achieving superhuman performance in specific tasks, such as Chess or Go, or Language Translation.
      • Rapid AGI Growth: AGI systems are expected to learn and adapt at an increasingly rapid pace, leading to a swift rise in AGI Capabilities.
      • Surpassing Human Intelligence: AGI systems will eventually outperform human intelligence in multiple domains, marking a significant milestone in human history.
      • AGI Societal Impact: The emergence of AGI can lead to substantial gains in Labor Productivity while also resulting in Mass Underemployment.
      • …
    • Potential AGI Consequences:
      • Positive: Potential outcomes may include increases in Economic Growth, new Scientific and Technological Breakthroughs, and improvements in Quality of Life.
      • Negative: Risks could involve Mass Unemployment, Social Unrest, increased Military and Geopolitical Tensions, and the existential risk of losing control over our destiny.

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