AGI Emergence Prediction

A AGI Emergence Prediction is a AI capability prediction that predicts the timing of AGI emergence period (for AGI).

• Context:
  • It can typically analyze AGI development trends through transformer architecture scaling.
  • It can typically incorporate AGI capability milestones through benchmark performance measurements.
  • It can typically consider AGI safety constraints through alignment challenge assessments.
  • It can typically evaluate AGI prerequisite technologies through large language model breakthroughs.
  • It can typically model AGI resource requirements through computational infrastructure projections.
  • ...
  • It can often utilize AGI development methodologys through expert survey aggregation.
  • It can often integrate AGI economic impact forecasts through labor market transformation analysis.
  • It can often account for AGI regulatory factors through government policy timelines.
  • It can often assess AGI public perception trends through community forum analysis.
  • It can often differentiate between AGI capability definitions through operational criteria selection.
  • ...
  • It can range from being a Conservative AGI Emergence Prediction to being an Aggressive AGI Emergence Prediction, depending on its timeline compression factors.
  • It can range from being a Academic AGI Emergence Prediction to being an Entrepreneurial AGI Emergence Prediction, depending on its institutional incentive structures.
  • It can range from being a Short-term AGI Emergence Prediction to being a Long-term AGI Emergence Prediction, depending on its hardware limitation assumptions.
  • It can range from being a Regional AGI Emergence Prediction to being a Global AGI Emergence Prediction, depending on its geographical scope.
  • ...
  • It can have AGI emergence probability distributions for timeline scenarios.
  • It can incorporate AGI scaling laws through parameter growth projections.
  • It can consider AGI alignment barriers through control problem assessments.
  • It can account for AGI compute requirements through energy consumption calculations.
  • It can track AGI definition shifts through historical survey comparisons.
  • ...
  • It can be AGI emergence disagreement sources during expert methodology divergence.
  • It can be AGI emergence signals in multimodal reasoning breakthroughs.
  • It can be AGI emergence inflection points after recursive self-improvement demonstrations.
  • ...
• Examples:
  • Historical AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
    • 1990s AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
      • Moravec (1990) AGI Emergence Prediction (Moravec, 1990) for 2010-2020 timeline based on computing power extrapolation.
      • Kurzweil (1999) AGI Emergence Prediction (Kurzweil, 1999) for 2029 AGI emergence based on computational capacity.
    • 2000s AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
      • Bostrom (2003) AGI Emergence Prediction (Bostrom, 2003) for 2050 median human-level AI estimate.
      • Hibbard (2008) AGI Emergence Prediction (Hibbard, 2008) for 2020-2040 range based on neuromorphic hardware.
    • 2010s AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
      • Müller-Bostrom (2012) AGI Emergence Prediction (Müller and Bostrom, 2012) for 2040-2050 median expert estimate.
      • Armstrong-Sotala (2015) AGI Emergence Prediction (Armstrong and Sotala, 2015) for 2075 consensus of 170 expert surveys.
    • 2020s AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
      • AI Impacts (2022) AGI Emergence Prediction (AI Impacts, 2022) for 2040 median prediction after LLM emergence.
      • Metaculus (2023) AGI Emergence Prediction (Metaculus, 2023) for 2031 community forecast after GPT-4.
      • Zhang (2024) AGI Emergence Prediction (Zhang et al., 2024) for 2060 strict AGI definition survey result.
  • AGI Emergence Prediction Methodologys, such as:
    • Survey-based AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
      • Müller-Bostrom AGI Emergence Prediction (Müller and Bostrom, 2012) for 550-expert timeline survey.
      • AI Impacts AGI Emergence Prediction (AI Impacts, 2023) for 2778-researcher timeline survey.
      • Baobao Zhang AGI Emergence Prediction (Zhang et al., 2024) for 296-expert timeline survey.
    • Model-based AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
      • Scaling Law AGI Emergence Prediction (Kaplan et al., 2020) for compute trajectory extrapolation.
      • Metaculus AGI Emergence Prediction (Metaculus, 2023) for crowdsourced probability aggregation.
      • Hardware Roadmap AGI Emergence Prediction (Nvidia, 2024) for GPU architecture progression.
  • AGI Emergence Prediction by Geographical Regions, such as:
    • North American AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
      • US Research Lab AGI Emergence Prediction (AI Impacts, 2023) for 2074 average timeline estimate.
      • Silicon Valley AGI Emergence Prediction (Altman et al., 2023) for 2030-2035 venture capital alignment timeline.
    • Asian AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
      • Chinese Academy AGI Emergence Prediction (Zhang et al., 2024) for 2045 average timeline estimate.
      • Japanese AI Consortium AGI Emergence Prediction (Toshiba Research, 2023) for 2050 government planning scenario.
  • AGI Emergence Prediction Sources, such as:
    • Academic AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
      • Computer Science AGI Emergence Prediction (AI Impacts, 2023) for reinforcement learning research timeline.
      • Neuroscience AGI Emergence Prediction (Bengio, 2023) for brain simulation requirement timeline.
    • Industry AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
      • OpenAI AGI Emergence Prediction (Altman, 2023) for transformative AI development roadmap.
      • Anthropic AGI Emergence Prediction (Amodei, 2024) for economically transformative AGI timeline.
      • Google DeepMind AGI Emergence Prediction (Hassabis, 2023) for multimodal system capability projection.
    • Entrepreneurial AGI Emergence Predictions, such as:
      • Sam Altman (2024) AGI Emergence Prediction (Altman, 2024) for 2025-2027 compute-scaling acceleration timeline.
      • Elon Musk (2024) AGI Emergence Prediction (Musk, 2024) for 2026 physics-capable AGI roadmap.
      • Dario Amodei (2024) AGI Emergence Prediction (Amodei, 2024) for 2026 economically transformative AGI timeline.
  • ...
• Counter-Examples:
  • AGI Capability Forecasts, which focus on specific AGI ability developments rather than overall AGI emergence timelines.
  • AI Economic Impact Predictions, which emphasize economic transformation effects rather than AGI emergence timing.
  • AI Risk Assessments, which concentrate on AI safety concerns rather than AGI emergence probability.
  • Narrow AI Development Roadmaps, which outline domain-specific AI progresses rather than general intelligence emergence.
  • Technological Singularity Forecasts, which predict post-AGI accelerations rather than initial AGI emergence points.
• See: AGI Development Timeline, AGI Capability Threshold, AI Progress Metric, AGI Prerequisite Technology, Technological Singularity, AI Safety Concern, Expert Survey Methodology, Large Language Model, Recursive Self-Improvement.

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