Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Emergence Period

A Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Emergence Period is a technological emergence period that marks the agi capability threshold crossing (when multiple ai systems exceed human cognitive capability levels across many cognitive domains).

Context:
- It can typically include highly capable agi systems, such as: agi-powered lawyers, agi-powered medical doctors, agi-powered software engineers, agi-powered intellectuals.
- It can typically represent the agi development milestone when artificial general intelligence first demonstrates human-level capability across multiple cognitive domains simultaneously.
- It can typically feature agi systems demonstrating transfer learning capabilitys across unrelated domains without specific domain training.
- It can typically involve agi systems solving novel problems through general reasoning capabilitys rather than specialized algorithms.
- It can typically display agi systems exhibiting autonomous goal formation and independent learning processes without human intervention.
- ...
- It can often be preceded by a narrow ai explosion period (marked by domain-specific ai advancements across numerous specialized fields).
- It can often be characterized by agi systems passing various agi capability thresholds including professional certification tests and cognitive assessment.
- It can often trigger significant societal adaptation processes requiring institutional transformation and economic restructuring.
- It can often stimulate intense philosophical debates about machine consciousness, digital personhood, and human-machine relationships.
- It can often create regulatory challenges around agi governance structures and international coordination mechanisms.
- ...
- It can range from being a Gradual AGI Emergence Period to being a Sudden AGI Emergence Period, depending on its capability breakthrough pattern.
- It can range from being a Limited AGI Emergence Period to being a Comprehensive AGI Emergence Period, depending on its cognitive domain breadth.
- It can range from being a Controlled AGI Emergence Period to being an Uncontrolled AGI Emergence Period, depending on its governance structure.
- It can range from being a Centralized AGI Emergence Period to being a Distributed AGI Emergence Period, depending on its development concentration.
- It can range from being a Expected AGI Emergence Period to being an Unexpected AGI Emergence Period, depending on its prediction alignment.
- ...
- It can be accelerated by an international ai race with competing ai-focused organizations.
- It can be triggered by agi timeline compression factors causing development acceleration.
- It can be defined by specific agi capability thresholds established through scientific consensus.
- It can be monitored through agi benchmark performance across cognitive assessment suites.
- It can be verified through professional domain mastery in multiple unrelated fields.
- ...
- It can require the existence of many exaflop systems between 2023 and 2030 based on computational infrastructure projections.
- It can involve breakthrough agi architectures enabling general capability emergence through system integration.
- It can necessitate advanced learning algorithms with meta-learning capabilitys and cross-domain generalization.
- It can demand extensive knowledge representation systems capturing domain relationships and conceptual hierarchy.
- It can depend on multi-modal reasoning systems integrating language, vision, and physical world models.
- ...
- It can result in large labor productivity gains through automated cognitive work.
- It can lead to mass underemployment through technological unemployment.
- It can transform economic structures through value creation shifts.
- It can reshape educational systems through skill obsolescence and learning priority changes.
- It can affect social institutions through decision process automation.
- ...
- It can be followed by an agi expansion period when agi systems become widespread adoption.
- It can precede a superintelligence emergence period when agi systems exceed general human intelligence substantially.
- It can transition into an agi maturity period featuring stable capabilitys and reliable performance.
- It can evolve toward an agi speciation period where diverse agi types emerge for specialized functions.
- ...
Examples:
Counter-Examples:
- Narrow AI Development Period, which focuses on domain-specific capability rather than general intelligence emergence.
- Human Intelligence Evolution Period, which involves biological cognitive development rather than artificial intelligence emergence.
- Superintelligence Explosion Period, which represents post-agi capability acceleration rather than initial agi emergence.
- Technological Singularity, which encompasses the broader transformative event rather than the specific intelligence emergence period.
- AGI Research Period, which covers the development of agi theory and methodology rather than capability threshold achievement.
- Machine Learning Advancement Era, which describes algorithm and model improvement rather than general intelligence emergence.
See: AGI Capability Threshold, AGI Timeline Compression Factor, AGI Emergence Prediction, Human-Level Artificial Intelligence, Technological Singularity, Narrow AI Explosion Period, AGI Expansion Period, Superintelligence Emergence Period, AGI Safety Alignment, Technological Unemployment, Digital Mind, Artificial Consciousness, Intelligence Explosion Hypothesis.

References

Narrow AI

2024

GPT-4
- Narrow AI Explosion Period (2010s - Future):
  - It represents a phase where Narrow AI applications rapidly diversify and improve in performance.
  - It could lead to the emergence of more sophisticated Narrow AI systems capable of handling complex, multi-step tasks within their defined scope.
  - It is characterized by a significant increase in the adoption and reliance on Narrow AI technologies across all sectors.
  - It poses ethical and regulatory challenges as Narrow AI becomes more deeply embedded in critical systems and processes.
- AGI Emergence Period (Hypothetical: 2030s - 2050s):
  - It signifies the initial development of AGI technology, potentially occurring in the mid-21st century.
  - It involves AGI systems gaining the capability to perform intellectual tasks like humans.
  - It is marked by breakthroughs in machine learning and cognitive computing.
  - It represents the transition from theoretical to practical applications of AGI.
- AGI Expansion Period (Hypothetical: 2050s - 2070s):
  - It sees AGI becoming integrated into various aspects of society.
  - It involves AGI managing complex systems and assisting in decision-making across multiple sectors.
  - It marks the point where AGI becomes a ubiquitous part of human life.
  - It raises new societal, ethical, and economic challenges as AGI becomes more prevalent.
- AGI Explosion Period (Hypothetical: Late 21st Century):
  - It is a phase of rapid and transformative change in AGI capabilities.
  - It could lead to AGIs improving themselves or creating more advanced AGIs.
  - It is characterized by exponential growth in intelligence and capability.
  - It has profound implications, including shifts in power dynamics, economic structures, and human identity.

2023

GBard
- QUOTE: An Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Emergence Period is a period of time in which artificial general intelligence (AGI) systems become capable of surpassing human cognitive capabilities in many areas. This can be preceded by a period of rapid development in Narrow AI, and can be accelerated by international competition between AI-focused organizations. The impact of AGI Emergence Periods on society could be significant, potentially leading to large gains in Labor Productivity and causing Mass Underemployment due to Technological Unemployment.
  - Detailed Description:
    - Early AGI Signs: The initial indicators may include AGI systems achieving superhuman performance in specific tasks, such as Chess or Go, or Language Translation.
    - Rapid AGI Growth: AGI systems are expected to learn and adapt at an increasingly rapid pace, leading to a swift rise in AGI Capabilities.
    - Surpassing Human Intelligence: AGI systems will eventually outperform human intelligence in multiple domains, marking a significant milestone in human history.
    - AGI Societal Impact: The emergence of AGI can lead to substantial gains in Labor Productivity while also resulting in Mass Underemployment.
    - …
  - Potential AGI Consequences:
    - Positive: Potential outcomes may include increases in Economic Growth, new Scientific and Technological Breakthroughs, and improvements in Quality of Life.
    - Negative: Risks could involve Mass Unemployment, Social Unrest, increased Military and Geopolitical Tensions, and the existential risk of losing control over our destiny.

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Emergence Period

References

Narrow AI

2024

2023

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