2024 2027AGIChinaUSSuperIntelligence

• (Aschenbrenner & Patel, 2024) ⇒ Leopold Aschenbrenner, and Dwarkesh Patel. (2024). “2027 AGI, China/US Super-Intelligence Race, & The Return of History.” YouTube Interview.

Subject Headings: Automated AI Researcher, Race to ASI, AGI Supremacy.

Notes

1. Scaling and Compute: Leopold argues that AI progress will continue rapidly, with training clusters growing exponentially to reach the "trillion dollar cluster" by 2030. He believes the path to AGI will require clusters on the order of 10 gigawatts.
2. Intelligence Explosion: Leopold envisions a scenario where AGI leads to superintelligence within a couple of years through an "intelligence explosion." In this scenario, the AGI system is used to automate and accelerate AI research itself. The rapid recursive improvement brought about by the intelligence explosion could compress a century of technological progress into less than a decade, leading to unprecedented advancements in a short timeframe.
3. Geopolitical Implications: As AGI approaches, Leopold predicts it will become a central focus of great power competition between the U.S. and China. Securing compute infrastructure and algorithmic secrets will be crucial in this race for AGI supremacy. Leopold foresees a volatile transition period with risks of AI-enabled WMDs. To mitigate these risks and ensure a favorable outcome, he advocates for a U.S.-led democratic coalition to win the AGI race.
4. Public vs Private Development: Leopold and Dwarkesh debate whether AGI development should be nationalized or left to private labs. Leopold expects heavy government involvement given the high stakes for national security. Dwarkesh pushes back against the idea of nationalizing AGI development, expressing concern about the concentration of power in government hands and the potential risks associated with such an approach.
5. Alignment: Leopold is relatively optimistic about solving the AI alignment problem, believing that it is tractable with focused effort. He thinks that dedicated research and collaboration can lead to the development of safe and beneficial AGI systems. However, Leopold emphasizes the difficulty of getting alignment right amidst a heated AGI race between nations. The competitive pressure and the rush to develop AGI could lead to cutting corners on safety and alignment, increasing the risks of misaligned or harmful AI systems.
6. OpenAI Drama: Leopold shares inside details about his controversial firing from OpenAI after raising security and governance concerns to leadership. The firing involved allegations of leaking a brainstorming document on AGI preparedness and sharing an internal memo criticizing OpenAI’s security measures.
7. Internal Security Concerns: Leopold highlighted insufficient security measures at OpenAI to protect model weights and algorithmic secrets from foreign actors. This led to HR warnings and dissatisfaction from leadership when he shared his concerns with the board.
8. NDA and Vested Equity: Leopold did not sign a non-disparagement agreement, despite being offered equity close to a million dollars, as it would have restricted his ability to discuss his thoughts on AGI and OpenAI publicly.
9. Concerns Over Company Direction: Leopold expressed concerns about OpenAI’s alignment with its mission and national interests, particularly regarding partnerships with authoritarian regimes for AGI infrastructure. He also disagreed with some public commitments made by the company.
10. Future AI Progress and Challenges: Leopold discussed the anticipated rapid progress in AI, predicting that models by 2027-2028 would be as smart as the smartest human experts. He highlighted the challenges and bottlenecks in integrating intermediate AI systems into business workflows.
11. New Investment Firm: Leopold explains his motivation for starting an AGI-focused investment firm, aiming to build a "brain trust" with the best situational awareness to navigate the turbulent transition to a world with superintelligence.

Cited By

• http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%222024%22+2027+AGI%2C+China%2FUS+Super-Intelligence+Race%2C+%5C%26+The+Return+of+History

References

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	Author	volume	Date Value	title	type	journal	titleUrl	doi	note	year
2024 2027AGIChinaUSSuperIntelligence	Leopold Aschenbrenner Dwarkesh Patel			2027 AGI, China/US Super-Intelligence Race, \& The Return of History						2024