2014 InSearchofBayesianInference

Subject Headings: Bayesian Inference, Bayesian Analysis.

Notes

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Finally, the BEA asked Metron, a scientific consulting firm based in Reston, VA, to generate a probability map for the airplane's location using Bayesian inference, a statistical approach to combining prior beliefs and experiences with new evidence. Metron started by constructing a probability map based on the initial data about the flight's disappearance, then used Bayes' Law to incorporate the evidence provided by the failures of the various search attempts.

A search in 2011 based on this new probability map found the wreckage within a week.

“Failure to use a Bayesian approach in planning the 2010 search delayed the discovery of the wreckage by up to one year," the Metron team wrote in the February 2014 issue of Statistical Science. The success of the Bayesian analysis, the team wrote, "provides a powerful illustration of the value of a methodical, Bayesian approach to search planning." While Bayesian inference has been around for over 250 years, it has swung in and out of favor over the centuries. During most of the 20th century, the approach was relegated to the statistical back burner, although even during that time it enjoyed some notable successes, such as Alan Turing's use of Bayesian statistics to help crack the Enigma encryption machines used by Germany in World War II.

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	Author	volume	Date Value	title	type	journal	titleUrl	doi	note	year
2014 InSearchofBayesianInference	Erica Klarreich			In Search of Bayesian Inference				10.1145/2686734		2014