Trend Analysis Task

A Trend Analysis Task is a quantitative analysis that is a temporal analysis.

• AKA: Temporal Quantitative Analysis.
• Context:
  • Input: a Quantitative Trend Dataset (such as an anomaly time series).
  • It can range from being a Retrospective Trend Analysis Task to being a Predictive Trend Analysis Task (and range from being a Near-Term Trend Analysis to being a Medium-Term Trend Analysis to being a Long-Term Trend Analysis).
  • It can range from being a Heuristic Trend Analysis Task to being a Data-Driven Trend Analysis Task.
  • It can be solved by a Trend Analysis System (that implements a trend analysis algorithm).
• Example(s):
  • a Financial Trend Analysis, such as a Temporal Accounting Measure Analysis Task.
  • "How much are you spending on police services over the last five years?"
• Counter-Example(s):
  • a Qualitative Temporal Data Task.
• See: Financial Trend.

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References

2015

• (Wikipedia, 2015) ⇒ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/trend_analysis Retrieved:2015-10-11.
  • Trend Analysis is the practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern, or trend, in the information. In some fields of study, the term "trend analysis" has more formally defined meanings.

    Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimate uncertain events in the past, such as how many ancient kings probably ruled between two dates, based on data such as the average years which other known kings reigned.

• (Wikipedia, 2015) ⇒ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/trend_analysis#Statistics Retrieved:2015-10-11.
  • In statistics, trend analysis often refers to techniques for extracting an underlying pattern of behaviour in a time series which would otherwise be partly or nearly completely hidden by noise. A simple description of these techniques is trend estimation, which can be undertaken within a formal regression analysis.

2014

• http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trendanalysis.asp
  • QUOTE: An aspect of technical analysis that tries to predict the future movement of a stock based on past data. Trend analysis is based on the idea that what has happened in the past gives traders an idea of what will happen in the future.

    There are three main types of trends: short-, intermediate- and long-term.

2001

• (Brown, 2001) ⇒ Lawrence D. Brown. (2001). “A Temporal Analysis of Earnings Surprises: Profits versus Losses.” In: Journal of Accounting Research 39, no. 2
  • QUOTE: I show that median earnings surprise has shifted rightward from small negative (miss analyst estimates by a small amount) to zero (meet analyst estimates exactly) to small positive (beat analyst estimates by a small amount) during the 16 years, 1984 to 1999. I show that a rightward temporal shift in median surprise from negative to positive describes earnings, but neither profits nor losses. Median profit surprise shifts within the positive quadrant, from zero to one cent per share. Median loss surprise shifts within the negative quadrant from extreme negative (about - 33 cents per share) to zero. I show that the median surprise for profits exceeds that for losses in every year. I document significant positive temporal trends in both meet and beat analyst estimates for both profits and losses, but I find a greater frequency of profits that either meet or beat analyst estimates in every year. I find a significant positive temporal trend in positive profits that are “a little bit of good news,” and a significant negative temporal trend in managers who report losses that are an “extreme amount of bad news.” My results are robust to the four internal validity threats I consider — namely temporal changes in: (1) analyst forecast accuracy, (2) the mix of earnings of one sign preceded by earnings of another sign four quarters ago, (3) the timeliness of the most recent analyst forecast, and (4) the I/B/E/S definition of actual earnings. I find that managers of growth firms are relatively more likely than managers of value firms to report good news profits. I show that when they do report positive profit surprises, managers of growth firms are more likely to report “a little bit of good news” in every year.

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2017

• (Wikipedia, 2017) ⇒ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/trend_analysis Retrieved:2017-10-29.
  • Trend analysis is the rampant practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern. In some fields of study, the term "trend analysis" has more formally defined meanings.

    Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimate uncertain events in the past, such as how many ancient kings probably ruled between two dates, based on data such as the average years which other known kings reigned.