Strategic Emerging Technology
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A Strategic Emerging Technology is a technology that can impact global power dynamics.
- Context:
- It can (often) be prioritized by governments due to its potential to confer strategic advantages.
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- It can range from being a Transformative Dual-Use Technology to being a Disruptive Dual-Use Technology, with the capability to influence both civilian and defense sectors.
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- It can be subject to International Collaboration as well as Technological Rivalry among nations, influencing global cooperation or competition.
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- Example(s):
- Information and Computing Technologies, such as:
- Quantum Computing: A technology with the potential to break conventional cryptographic systems, altering the balance of power in cybersecurity.
- Artificial General Intelligence: An advanced form of AI that could surpass human intelligence, leading to unprecedented strategic advantages.
- 5G Technology: A communication technology enabling faster, more reliable connectivity, with implications for both civilian infrastructure and military communications.
- Space-Based Surveillance Systems: Technologies providing real-time global monitoring, enhancing national security and strategic intelligence.
- Advanced Cybersecurity Systems: Systems that utilize AI and machine learning to predict and counteract cyber threats, protecting critical infrastructure.
- Materials and Weapons Technologies, such as:
- Hypersonic Weapons Technology: A technology that can bypass traditional missile defense systems, creating new defense challenges and strategic considerations.
- Graphene: An advanced material leading to breakthroughs in military equipment, energy storage, and electronics, providing strategic leverage.
- Robotics Technology: A technology capable of automating complex tasks in both civilian industries and military applications, reshaping labor markets and defense capabilities.
- Directed Energy Weapons: Weapons that use focused energy, such as lasers, to disable targets, offering a strategic advantage in modern warfare.
- Biotechnologies, such as:
- CRISPR Gene Editing: A biotechnology revolutionizing healthcare by enabling precise genetic modifications, with potential applications in biowarfare.
- Synthetic Biology: A field that designs and constructs new biological parts and systems, with implications for both healthcare and biosecurity.
- Brain-Computer Interfaces: Technologies enabling direct communication between the brain and computers, offering potential advancements in both medical treatments and military applications.
- Energy and Environmental Technologies, such as:
- Fusion Power: A technology promising virtually limitless, clean energy, which could reshape global energy dynamics and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
- Advanced Energy Storage Systems: Systems that enable efficient energy storage, crucial for managing renewable energy sources and ensuring energy security.
- Climate Engineering Technologies: Technologies designed to deliberately alter the Earth's climate, offering potential solutions to climate change but also posing significant geopolitical risks.
- Autonomous Systems and Swarm Technologies, such as:
- Autonomous Drones: Unmanned systems capable of operating independently, used in both civilian applications and military operations.
- Swarm Intelligence Systems: Systems that mimic the collective behavior of natural systems, such as insect swarms, to create highly adaptive and resilient technological solutions.
- Historical Strategic Emerging Technologies.
- Gunpowder and Firearms (13th-15th centuries): Revolutionized warfare, shifting the balance of power in conflicts and altering castle and fortification designs. It had far-reaching effects on military strategy, state formation, and global exploration.
- Printing Press (15th century): Dramatically increased the speed and reduced the cost of book production, leading to a revolution in the spread of information, ideas, and literacy. It played a crucial role in the Renaissance, Reformation, and Scientific Revolution.
- Steam Engine (18th century): Powered the Industrial Revolution, transforming manufacturing, transportation, and agriculture. It significantly altered the economic and military capabilities of nations that adopted it early.
- Telegraph (19th century): Revolutionized long-distance communication, allowing for near-instantaneous transmission of information across vast distances. It had profound effects on military command, diplomacy, and global trade.
- Railways (19th century): Transformed transportation, allowing for rapid movement of goods, people, and military forces. It played a crucial role in industrialization, urbanization, and the expansion of empires.
- Ironclad Warships (mid-19th century): Changed naval warfare, making wooden ships obsolete and altering the balance of naval power. The race to develop better ironclads became a key aspect of great power competition
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- Information and Computing Technologies, such as:
- Counter-Example(s):
- Conventional Technology, such as internal combustion engines, which, while still important, do not have the transformative or disruptive potential of strategic emerging technologies.
- Legacy Systems, such as traditional landline telephony, which are being phased out in favor of more advanced technologies and do not influence global power dynamics in the same way.
- Single-Use Technology, such as a basic household appliance that does not have broader strategic implications or dual-use potential.
- See: Transformative Dual-Use Technology, Disruptive Dual-Use Technology, National Security Implications, Technological Singularity, Military-Civil Fusion
References
2024
- Perplexity
- a Strategic Emerging Technology can be defined as a technology that has the potential to significantly impact global power dynamics and reshape international relations. Some key points about Strategic Emerging Technologies:
- They are characterized by radical novelty, relatively fast growth, coherence, prominent impact, and uncertainty/ambiguity[1].
- Examples include artificial intelligence, robotics, quantum computing, biotechnology, and advanced materials[1][3].
- These technologies can alter the balance of power among nations by enhancing economic strength, military capabilities, and political influence[5].
- Countries that successfully develop and adopt strategic emerging technologies may gain competitive advantages and increased global influence[4].
- They are becoming central to great power competition, particularly between the United States and China[8].
- Strategic emerging technologies are shaping the emerging world order and impacting areas like warfare, global security, and strategic stability[7].
- Their development and control is increasingly seen as a geopolitical issue of the highest order, not just an economic/commercial matter[8].
- Countries are pursuing "technological sovereignty" in strategic emerging tech areas to reduce dependencies[8].
- The diffusion and adoption of these technologies can alter relative power capabilities between nations over time[7].
- There is uncertainty around how exactly emerging technologies will evolve and impact global power structures, making exact predictions difficult[7].
- Citations:
- a Strategic Emerging Technology can be defined as a technology that has the potential to significantly impact global power dynamics and reshape international relations. Some key points about Strategic Emerging Technologies:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_technologies [2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048733315001031 [3] https://qat.com/9-emerging-technologies/ [4] https://www.hoover.org/research/emerging-technologies-and-their-impact-international-relations-and-global-security [5] https://www.csis.org/analysis/technology-and-shifting-balance-power [6] https://www.hsdl.org/c/view?docid=845571 [7] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10618639/ [8] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/unpacking-the-geopolitics-of-technology/