Hindsight Bias
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A Hindsight Bias is a cognitive bias where an event is attributed as having been predictable.
- AKA: Knew-It-All-Along Effect, Creeping Determinism.
- See: Post-Hoc Analysis..
References
2015
- (Wikipedia, 2015) ⇒ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/hindsight_bias Retrieved:2015-4-8.
- Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism, is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it. [1] [2] It is a multifaceted phenomenon that can affect different stages of designs, processes, contexts, and situations. [3] Hindsight bias may cause memory distortion, where the recollection and reconstruction of content can lead to false theoretical outcomes. It has been suggested that the effect can cause extreme methodological problems while trying to analyze, understand, and interpret results in experimental studies. A basic example of the hindsight bias is when, after viewing the outcome of a potentially unforeseeable event, a person believes he or she "knew it all along". Such examples are present in the writings of historians describing outcomes of battles, physicians recalling clinical trials, and in judicial systems trying to attribute responsibility and predictability of accidents.[4]
- ↑ Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D. (2012). “Hindsight bias". Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7, 411-426.
- ↑ Hoffrage, U., & Pohl, R., 2003. Hindsight Bias: A Special Issue of Memory. Champlain, USA, Psychology Press.
- ↑ Rudiger, F. (2007). “Ways to Assess Hindsight Bias". Social Cognition, 25 (1) : 14-31.
- ↑ Fischhoff, B. (2003). “Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty", Quality & Safety in Health Care, 12, 304-312.