Climate Sensitivity

A Climate Sensitivity is a climatological measure that quantifies the change in global mean surface temperature resulting from a given change in radiative forcing, particularly due to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in Earth's atmosphere.

• Context:
  • It can (typically) be expressed as the average temperature increase in response to a specific increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.
  • It can (often) be used to predict potential future changes in Earth's climate under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
  • It can include both "transient climate response" (short-term response) and "equilibrium climate sensitivity" (long-term response).
  • It can be estimated using direct observations, historical climate data, and climate modeling.
• Example(s):
  • An estimated climate sensitivity of about 3°C, meaning the global average temperature is expected to rise by approximately 3°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2.
  • The use of climate sensitivity in IPCC reports to project future climate scenarios.
• Counter-Example(s):
  • A Weather Prediction model, which focuses on short-term atmospheric conditions.
  • A Seasonal Climate Forecasting model, which predicts climate variations on a seasonal scale rather than long-term changes.
• See: Anthropocene, Climate Change Projections, Climate Feedback Loops, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios, Historical Climate Data, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Transient Climate Response, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, Climate Modeling.

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References

2024

• (Wikipedia, 2024) ⇒ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_sensitivity Retrieved:2024-1-28.
  • Climate sensitivity is a measure of how much Earth's surface will warm for a doubling in the atmospheric carbon dioxide () concentration. In technical terms, climate sensitivity is the average change in global mean surface temperature in response to a radiative forcing, which drives a difference between Earth's incoming and outgoing energy. Climate sensitivity is a key measure in climate science, and a focus area for climate scientists, who want to understand the ultimate consequences of anthropogenic global warming.

    The Earth's surface warms as a direct consequence of increased atmospheric , as well as increased concentrations of other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and methane. The increasing temperatures have secondary effects on the climate system, such as an increase in atmospheric water vapour, which is itself also a greenhouse gas. Scientists do not know exactly how strong the climate feedbacks are and it is difficult to predict the precise amount of warming that will result from a given increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. If climate sensitivity turns out to be on the high side of scientific estimates, the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to below will be difficult to achieve.

    The two primary types of climate sensitivity are the shorter-term "transient climate response", the increase in global average temperature that is expected to have occurred at a time when the atmospheric concentration has doubled, and "equilibrium climate sensitivity", the higher long-term increase in global average temperature expected to occur after the effects of a doubled concentration have had time to reach a steady state. Climate sensitivity is typically estimated in three ways: using direct observations of temperature and levels of greenhouse gases taken during the industrial age, using indirectly-estimated temperature and other measurements from the Earth's more distant past, and computer modelling the various aspects of the climate system with computers.

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