Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)-Related Prediction

A Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)-Related Prediction is an AI-related prediction for the development and capabilities of AGI.

• Context:
  • It can (typically) involve estimating the timeframe in which AGI will be developed.
  • It can (often) include predictions about AGI's potential capabilities
  • It can (often) include predictions about AGI's potential impact on society, industries, and various aspects of human life.
  • It can range from being an Optimistic AGI Prediction to being a Pessimistic AGI Prediction.
  • It can be based on surveys and studies conducted among experts in the field of artificial intelligence.
  • It can include considerations of technological, ethical, and societal challenges associated with AGI.
  • ...
• Example(s):
  • A prediction that AGI will be achieved by 2045.
  • A prediction estimating the probability of AGI will be achieved by 2045.
  • ...
• Counter-Example(s):
  • a Narrow AI Predictin, such as improved image recognition algorithms.
  • a Quantum Computers Prediction.
• See: Artificial Intelligence, Technological Singularity, AI Ethics, AI Development Timeline.

---

---

References

2024c

• (Amodei, 2024) ⇒ Dario Amodei. (2024). “Machines of Loving Grace: How AI Could Transform the World for the Better.”
  • NOTES:
    • It envisions "powerful AI" emerging as early as 2026, capable of dramatically accelerating scientific discovery and transforming various aspects of society.
    • It defines powerful AI as systems smarter than top human experts across various fields, capable of autonomous long-term tasks, and scalable to millions of instances.
    • It identifies five key areas of impact: biology and health, neuroscience and mental health, economic development and poverty, peace and governance, and work and meaning.
    • It argues that AI can dramatically speed up the rate of scientific breakthroughs, compressing decades or even a century of progress into a few years.
    • It suggests that AI could enable the prevention and cure of most infectious diseases, cancers, and genetic conditions, significantly extending healthy human lifespans.
    • It emphasizes that addressing AI risks is essential, not out of pessimism, but because mitigating these risks is crucial to realizing AI's immense benefits.
    • It underscores that achieving this optimistic future will require coordinated efforts from AI developers, policymakers, and society at large.

2024b

• (Aschenbrenner, 2024) ⇒ Leopold Aschenbrenner. (2024). "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead."
  • NOTES:
    • It explores the potential developments and challenges in AI and AGI over the next decade.
    • It emphasizes the geopolitical and economic implications of achieving AGI.
    • It discusses the technical and security challenges associated with advancing AI technologies.
    • It highlights the rapid mobilization of American industrial resources to support AI development.
    • It addresses the urgency of securing AGI secrets against state actors like the CCP.
    • It predicts the emergence of automated AI researchers that could accelerate AI advancements exponentially.

2024a

• (Grace et al., 2024) ⇒ Katja Grace, Harlan Stewart, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Stephen Thomas, Ben Weinstein-Raun, and Jan Brauner. (2024). “Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI.” In: arXiv preprint arXiv:2401.02843.
  • NOTE: It suggests:
    • A 50% probability by 2028 for AI systems to achieve several milestones, such as:
      1. Autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch.
      2. Creating a song indistinguishable from a new song by a popular musician.
      3. Autonomously downloading and fine-tuning a large language model.
    • If scientific progress continues without disruption, there's a:
      • 10% chance by 2027 and a 50% chance by 2047 that autonomous intelligent machines will outperform humans in every possible task.
      • This 2047 estimate is 13 years earlier than the one reached in a similar survey conducted in 2022.
    • The probability of all human occupations becoming fully automatable is forecasted to:
      • Reach 10% by 2037 and 50% by 2116.

---