Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)-Related Prediction
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A Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)-Related Prediction is an AI-related prediction for the development and capabilities of AGI.
- Context:
- It can (typically) involve estimating the timeframe in which AGI will be developed.
- It can (often) include predictions about AGI's potential capabilities
- It can (often) include predictions about AGI's potential impact on society, industries, and various aspects of human life.
- It can range from being an Optimistic AGI Prediction to being a Pessimistic AGI Prediction.
- It can be based on surveys and studies conducted among experts in the field of artificial intelligence.
- It can include considerations of technological, ethical, and societal challenges associated with AGI.
- ...
- Example(s):
- A prediction that AGI will be achieved by 2045.
- A prediction estimating the probability of AGI will be achieved by 2045.
- ...
- Counter-Example(s):
- a Narrow AI Predictin, such as improved image recognition algorithms.
- a Quantum Computers Prediction.
- See: Artificial Intelligence, Technological Singularity, AI Ethics, AI Development Timeline.
References
2024c
- (Amodei, 2024) ⇒ Dario Amodei. (2024). “Machines of Loving Grace: How AI Could Transform the World for the Better.”
- NOTES:
- It envisions "powerful AI" emerging as early as 2026, capable of dramatically accelerating scientific discovery and transforming various aspects of society.
- It defines powerful AI as systems smarter than top human experts across various fields, capable of autonomous long-term tasks, and scalable to millions of instances.
- It identifies five key areas of impact: biology and health, neuroscience and mental health, economic development and poverty, peace and governance, and work and meaning.
- It argues that AI can dramatically speed up the rate of scientific breakthroughs, compressing decades or even a century of progress into a few years.
- It suggests that AI could enable the prevention and cure of most infectious diseases, cancers, and genetic conditions, significantly extending healthy human lifespans.
- It emphasizes that addressing AI risks is essential, not out of pessimism, but because mitigating these risks is crucial to realizing AI's immense benefits.
- It underscores that achieving this optimistic future will require coordinated efforts from AI developers, policymakers, and society at large.
- NOTES:
2024b
- (Aschenbrenner, 2024) ⇒ Leopold Aschenbrenner. (2024). "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead."
- NOTES:
- It explores the potential developments and challenges in AI and AGI over the next decade.
- It emphasizes the geopolitical and economic implications of achieving AGI.
- It discusses the technical and security challenges associated with advancing AI technologies.
- It highlights the rapid mobilization of American industrial resources to support AI development.
- It addresses the urgency of securing AGI secrets against state actors like the CCP.
- It predicts the emergence of automated AI researchers that could accelerate AI advancements exponentially.
- NOTES:
2024a
- (Grace et al., 2024) ⇒ Katja Grace, Harlan Stewart, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Stephen Thomas, Ben Weinstein-Raun, and Jan Brauner. (2024). “Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI.” In: arXiv preprint arXiv:2401.02843.
- NOTE: It suggests:
- A 50% probability by 2028 for AI systems to achieve several milestones, such as:
- Autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch.
- Creating a song indistinguishable from a new song by a popular musician.
- Autonomously downloading and fine-tuning a large language model.
- If scientific progress continues without disruption, there's a:
- 10% chance by 2027 and a 50% chance by 2047 that autonomous intelligent machines will outperform humans in every possible task.
- This 2047 estimate is 13 years earlier than the one reached in a similar survey conducted in 2022.
- The probability of all human occupations becoming fully automatable is forecasted to:
- Reach 10% by 2037 and 50% by 2116.
- A 50% probability by 2028 for AI systems to achieve several milestones, such as:
- NOTE: It suggests: