Metaculus System

A Metaculus System is a reputation system that aggregates and optimally combines individual predictions to forecast future events, focusing on scientific and technological developments.

• Context:
  • It can (typically) leverage a Reputation System to track and rank the prediction accuracy of its users, providing incentives for high-quality forecasts.
  • It can (often) involve Prediction Markets by allowing users to update their predictions based on new information.
  • It can (often) provide visualizations of prediction trajectories, allowing users to track how collective opinions shift over time.
  • ...
  • It can be structured as a Forecasting Platform, where users submit predictions on various global topics, such as scientific breakthroughs and geopolitical developments.
  • It can aggregate predictions using Bayesian Inference and advanced Scoring Rules to compute consensus probabilities for future events.
  • It can support Prediction Competitions where users improve their ranking by refining the accuracy of their forecasts over time.
  • It can range from small community discussions on niche topics to large-scale forecasting challenges open to a global audience.
  • It can integrate Machine Learning models to weigh user predictions based on historical performance, improving the accuracy of aggregated outcomes.
  • It can foster collaboration among researchers, policymakers, and enthusiasts by encouraging dialogue on complex global issues.
  • It can align with organizations' goals like the Future of Life Institute, promoting responsible forecasting of future risks and opportunities.
  • It can have [[...
    • Metaculus General Prediction Platform, which tracks predictions on diverse topics, including AI developments and geopolitical trends.
    • Metaculus COVID-19 Forecasting, which aggregated user predictions during the pandemic to estimate the course of the outbreak.
    • Metaculus Science and Technology Forecasting, focusing on the timing and impact of scientific discoveries and technological innovations.
    • Metaculus When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test? ...
  • ...
• Example(s):
  • Metaculus, 2024 when ...
  • ...
• Counter-Example(s):
  • Traditional Polling Systems that do not incorporate user reputation or refined scoring mechanisms to assess prediction accuracy.
  • Betting Markets where outcomes are determined by monetary stakes rather than predictive accuracy or community engagement.
  • Q&A Platforms that solicit opinions or advice without evaluating the reliability of contributors.
• See: Reputation System, Benefit Corporation, Santa Cruz, California, Anthony Aguirre, Gregory P. Laughlin, Future of Life Institute, Nature.

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References

2024

• (Wikipedia, 2024) ⇒ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/metaculus Retrieved:2024-10-4.
  • Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature, and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.

2024

• https://www.linkedin.com/company/metaculus/about/
  • Metaculus is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. Research shows that with the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can make remarkably accurate predictions of the probability of future events.
  • Our mission is to build epistemic infrastructure that enables the global community to model, understand, predict, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges.
  • Website: http://www.metaculus.com
  • Industry: Technology, Information, and Internet.
  • Company size: 29 associated members.
  • Headquarters: Santa Cruz, CA.
  • Founded: 2015.
  • Specialties: Forecasting, Technology, Bayesian Inference, Forecasting Competitions, and Scoring Rules.

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