AGI-to-ASI Transition Period

A AGI-to-ASI Transition Period is an AI system emergence period for superintelligence (that significantly surpasses human intelligence and AGI).

• AKA: Superintelligence Emergence Period, ASI Development Phase, AGI ASI Transition Era, Post AGI System Period.
• Context:
  • It can (typically) involve AGI ASI System Change through ASI Advancement Rate.
  • It can (typically) have an AGI ASI Transition Duration.
  • It can often require ASI Global Coordination through ASI Governance Frameworks.
  • It can often need ASI Safety Systems through ASI Control Mechanisms.
  • It can often involve ASI Risk Management through ASI Risk Mitigation Strategys.
  • It can often demand ASI Ethical Oversight through ASI Value Alignment.
  • ...
  • It can range from being a Fast ASI Transition Period to being a Slow ASI Transition Period, depending on its ASI Development Speed.
  • It can range from being a Controlled ASI Evolution to being an Uncontrolled ASI Evolution, depending on its ASI Management Level.
  • It can range from being a Local ASI Emergence to being a Global ASI Emergence, depending on its ASI Distribution Pattern.
  • It can range from being a Local ASI System Evolution to being a Global ASI System Evolution, depending on its ASI Impact Scope.
  • It can range from being a Predictable ASI Development to being an Emergent ASI Development, depending on its ASI Complexity Level.
  • ...
  • It can create ASI Control Challenges through ASI System Evolution.
  • It can demand ASI Emergency Protocols through ASI Rapid Development.
  • It can affect Human Society through ASI Transformative Impact.
  • It can be followed by an ASI Expansion Period through ASI System Proliferation.
  • It can be concurrent with an AGI Evolution Period through AGI ASI Parallel Development.
  • It can precede a ASI Singularity Event through ASI Exponential Growth.
  • It can initiate a ASI System Transformation through ASI Intelligence Enhancement.
  • ...
• Examples:
  • ASI Historical Predictions, such as:
    • ASI Timeline Scenarios, such as:
      • Late 21st Century ASI Emergence for Initial ASI Development.
      • Early 22nd Century ASI Transition for Full ASI Capability.
    • ASI Development Patterns, such as:
      • ASI Recursive Enhancement Path for ASI Capability Enhancement.
      • ASI Distributed Evolution for ASI Global Development.
  • ASI Theoretical Models, such as:
    • ASI Emergence Scenarios, such as:
      • ASI Controlled Transition for ASI Managed Development.
      • ASI Rapid Evolution for ASI Quick Advancement.
    • ASI Safety Frameworks, such as:
      • ASI Control Protocol for ASI Risk Management.
      • ASI Value System for ASI Ethical Development.
  • ...
• Counter-Examples:
  • Early AI Research Period, which focuses on Narrow AI Development rather than AGI ASI Transition.
  • Machine Learning Evolution Period, which develops AI Algorithm Enhancements rather than ASI System Transformation.
  • Current AI Development Phase, which emphasizes Specialized AI Systems rather than AGI ASI Development.
  • Neural Network Advancement Era, which improves AI Pattern Recognition rather than ASI Universal Intelligence.
  • AI Capability Enhancement Period, which upgrades Current AI Systems rather than ASI System Transformation.
• See: ASI Intelligence Explosion, AGI ASI Evolution, ASI Development Pathway, ASI Global Framework, ASI Safety Protocol, ASI Transition Strategy, ASI Risk Framework, ASI Human Coexistence.

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References

2025-01-20

• Perplexity.ai
  • Question: What are the key predictions and aspects of the AGI to ASI Transition Period? Please explain the timeline predictions, transition characteristics, safety and control requirements, and expected societal impacts.
  • Answer: The AGI to ASI Transition Period represents a critical phase in artificial intelligence development where systems evolve from human-level intelligence (AGI) to superintelligent capabilities (ASI).
    • Timeline Predictions:
      • Near-Term Scenarios:
        • Rapid 2-year transition with 10% likelihood.
        • Longer 30-year transition with 75% likelihood.
        • Median timeline suggesting ASI emergence by 2060.
      • Expert Forecasts:
        • OpenAI suggests superintelligence by 2027.
        • Ray Kurzweil predicts AGI by 2029 and superintelligence by 2045.
        • Metaculus community predicts AGI by 2031.
    • Transition Characteristics:
      • Speed of Evolution:
        • Hard takeoff: Rapid transition within days or months through recursive self-improvement.
        • Soft takeoff: Gradual transition over years with human oversight.
      • Development Patterns:
        • Recursive self-improvement capabilities.
        • Exponential learning and knowledge acquisition.
        • Development of advanced reasoning capabilities.
    • Safety and Control:
      • Governance Requirements:
        • International coordination and oversight.
        • Development of safety protocols and control mechanisms.
        • Establishment of ethical frameworks.
      • Risk Management:
        • Maintaining human control over increasingly powerful systems.
        • Ensuring alignment with human values and goals.
        • Managing rapid capability acceleration.
    • Societal Impact:
      • Transformative Effects:
        • Fundamental changes to human society and economics.
        • Rapid technological advancement across multiple domains.
        • Potential reshaping of global power structures.
      • Preparation Requirements:
        • Develop robust governance frameworks.
        • Establish international cooperation mechanisms.
        • Create emergency protocols for rapid development scenarios.
  • Citations:

[1] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qeJomTN2yp5tQG4rL/four-phases-of-agi
[2] https://sustensis.co.uk/evidence-for-maturing-superintelligence-being-quite-near/
[3] https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/4lxr2c/agi_to_asi_timeline/
[4] https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html
[5] http://www.gabormelli.com/RKB/Superintelligence_Explosion_Period

2024

• GPT-4
  • ASI Emergence Period (Hypothetical: Late 21st Century - Early 22nd Century):
    • It follows the advanced development of AGI, potentially occurring in the late 21st or early 22nd century.
    • It marks the transition to an intelligence far superior to human cognition.
    • It involves the development of entities that surpass human abilities in all domains.
    • It represents the initial phase of true Superintelligence.
  • ASI Expansion Period (Hypothetical: Early to Mid-22nd Century):
    • It involves the application of Superintelligence in global systems.
    • It aims to address complex global challenges such as climate change, poverty, or disease.
    • It raises significant concerns about control and safety due to its immense capabilities.
    • It highlights the potential misalignment between Superintelligence goals and human well-being.
  • ASI Explosion Period (Hypothetical: Mid-22nd Century and Beyond):
    • It is often associated with the concept of a technological "singularity."
    • It represents a period of unpredictable and rapid advancement in Superintelligence.
    • It could lead to a complete transformation of human society, technology, and possibly biology.
    • It presents a future where the outcomes and impacts of Superintelligence are beyond human comprehension.

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