2023 ScenarioPlanningforAnAGIFuture

• (Korinek, 2023) ⇒ Anton Korinek. (2023). “Scenario Planning for An AGI Future.” In: IMF Finance & Development Magazine.

Subject Headings: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), Policy Frameworks for AI.

Notes

• It acknowledges the rapid advancements in AI, notably in generative models like ChatGPT, and their significant productivity gains across various sectors.
• It highlights divergent views among AI researchers regarding the pace of AI progress, with predictions of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) being realized within 5 to 20 years.
• It presents two perspectives on human intelligence: one suggesting unbounded capabilities in solving complex tasks and the other positing a finite limit to these capabilities.
• It outlines three scenarios for AI's future development: Business as Usual with incremental AI progress, Baseline with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in 20 years, and Aggressive with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in five years.
• It analyzes each AI development scenario's economic and policy implications, emphasizing the need for adaptive Policy Frameworks for AI.
• It stresses the importance of continuously monitoring AI development and macroeconomic trends to adopt Policy Frameworks for AI and strategies effectively.
• It advises policymakers to prepare for multiple scenarios, including stress-testing economic frameworks and considering reforms for labor markets and safety nets.
• It encourages proactive and responsive policymaking to address the challenges and opportunities presented by the rapid evolution of AI, guided by Policy Frameworks for AI.
• It discusses the significance of scenario planning in the context of the potential development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
• It emphasizes the importance of preparing for various potential outcomes of AGI development, ranging from incremental progress to the rapid realization of AGI.
• It underscores the unpredictability of AI advancements and the necessity for policymakers and economists to consider multiple future scenarios to effectively adapt to the evolving landscape of AI and its societal implications.
• (Korinek, 2023) ⇒ Anton Korinek. (2023). “Scenario Planning for An AGI Future.” In: IMF Finance & Development Magazine.

Subject Headings: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), Policy Frameworks for AI, Human Intelligence.

Notes

• On Artificial General Intelligence (AGI):
  • It highlights the possibility of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) being realized within 5 to 20 years.
  • It outlines three scenarios for AI's future development in the context of AGI: Business as Usual (no near-term AGI), Baseline (AGI in 20 years), and Aggressive (AGI in five years).
• On Policy Frameworks for AI:
  • It emphasizes the need for adaptive Policy Frameworks for AI in response to different AI development scenarios.
  • It advises policymakers to prepare for multiple scenarios, including reforms for labor markets and safety nets.
  • It encourages proactive and responsive policymaking to address AI's rapid evolution, guided by Policy Frameworks for AI.
• On AI Advancement Predictions:
  • It acknowledges the rapid advancements in AI, particularly in generative models like ChatGPT, and their productivity gains.
  • It discusses the significance of scenario planning for the potential development of AGI.
  • It underscores the unpredictability of AI advancements and the need to consider multiple future scenarios.
  • On Human Intelligence:
  • It presents two perspectives on human intelligence: one suggesting unbounded problem-solving capabilities and another proposing a finite limit.
  • It stresses the importance of continuously monitoring AI development and macroeconomic trends for effective strategy adaptation.

Cited By

• http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%222023%22+Scenario+Planning+for+An+AGI+Future

References

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	Author	volume	Date Value	title	type	journal	titleUrl	doi	note	year
2023 ScenarioPlanningforAnAGIFuture	Anton Korinek			Scenario Planning for An AGI Future						2023